Tories take lead in Norwich South, say pollsters

May 10, 2008

The Conservatives have taken the lead in the new Norwich South constituency, according to respected political pollster “Electoral Calculus”. Reflecting massive Tory poll leads and victories at last week’s local elections in the City, the latest poll puts the seat at:
Conservative 30%
Labour 29%
LibDem 25%
Green 15%

I check the site regularly because of the seat-by-seat breakdown of its poll findings and this is the first time and suggests a win for the Tories (albeit with a majority in the hundreds) for the first time. It also shows the lack of impact of the LibDems, who continue to decline across the City.

I take some comfort from this but think things may change between now and polling day; I think the Greens for example will do better but at the further expense of Labour and the LibDems; but it does suggest that our campaigning locally and nationally is working.

Interestingly I was talking to a friend of mine, staunch Labour, today who said that for the first time his vote was up for grabs. He thought Labour had lurched into one too man disasters and that Clarke’s time was up. If I vote tomorrow, he said, it would be for you. But, he added carefully, it isn’t tomorrow so things might yet change. I can handle that caveat to his support; because it’s my job in the next 2 years to give him a positive reason to vote for Cameron and myself.

16 Comments | Charles Clarke, LibDems, Norwich South, conservatives, labour, polls | Permalink
Posted by antonylittle

Newsnight: 86% say the LibDems are incompetent, but at least only 15% say they are sleazy

December 3, 2007

Is this the reason why you should never include the LibDems in major polls about leading the country? I’m pretty sure these figures are down to low name recongition but they did make me laugh.

Leave a Comment » | LibDems, newsnight, polls | Permalink
Posted by antonylittle

More LibDem Poll Gloom: ICM confirms party on the slide (again)

December 2, 2007

After all of the excitement that the corpse of the Liberal Democrats may yet be twitching, an ICM poll confirms today that their ratings have slipped by another 2%. The poll puts Cameron up, again, 11% ahead of Labour and heading for an overall parliamentary majority. You might have thought that a leadership election, which puts the party in the spotlight, may result in a poll improvement … but it seems that the backbiting of the Clegg-Huhne battle (which looks, according to YouGov to be too close to call) has damaged the party yet further.

Leave a Comment » | LibDems, clegg, huhne, polls | Permalink
Posted by antonylittle

Cameron’s Conservatives take a 13% lead

November 26, 2007

Con 40%, Labour 27%, LibDems 18%.

Very good.

2 Comments | polls | Permalink
Posted by antonylittle

Polls put parties in their box

November 18, 2007

The latest batch of opinion polls helps us to confirm what is happening in British politics. As we all know a single poll is often unreliable, but a series of them which demonstrates a trend is worthy of note. It is clear now that the Conservatives are in the 40-43 box, Labour 33-38 and the LibDems … well, all over the place. There has been a lot of noise being made about the grey-vote swinging behind Cameron. I personally believe the most important findings of the recent YouGov poll is that the Conservative have a 1% lead over Labour amongst young voters too. Why isn’t more being made of that? Aren’t we always being told that young people aren’t Tory?

4 Comments | polls | Permalink
Posted by antonylittle

Cameron takes an 8% lead

October 29, 2007

When Cameron first became Tory Leader I said time and time again that polls will come and go but the trend is more important. I said that after leaving the 31-33 box, and then the 37-40 box, Cameron would have to hit 42% with a 10% lead consistently to really be in cruise control.

The Com Res poll today gives Cameron 41% and an 8% lead. We’ll have to wait to see if the other pollsters fall into line.

Leave a Comment » | cameron, polls | Permalink
Posted by antonylittle

It’s Neck and Neck! Only the Conservatives can beat Labour here…

October 4, 2007

My unfailing optimism about the future of the Tory Party is normally frowned upon in our staffroom. They either pity me or ignore me. Then today something happened. Somebody (and you know who you are!) pipped up with “your man gave a good speech, didn’t he?”. I replied, “Yes, the speech that’ll make him Prime Minister.” Then something strange happened. Laughter didn’t break out. A few looked serious at this thought, a couple nodded and one said, “you could just be right.”

The ICM poll tonight puts Brown and Cameron neck-and-neck on 38% a piece with poor old Sir Ming’s LibDems well out of it. Other polls are showing roughly a 3.5% swing to the Tories, with Labour’s lead cut to 4%, 3% and 1% (depending on your pollster). Not a bad result for an hours work Dave!

My favourite post-speech moment came with a sixth-former today who admitted – in front of his class mates – that Cameron’s speech nearly made him cry. I didn’t admit that I nearly cried too (!) My sixth form class clearly loved the speech, all bar one who hadn’t realised he’d even spoken!

1 Comment | cameron, polls | Permalink
Posted by antonylittle

LibDems down to just 12 % in new poll

June 26, 2007

On the eve of the Brown premiership, a new YouGov poll puts the Conservatives ahead again, but the sensational result is the LibDem share sinking to just 12%.

I have said time and time again that you cannot tell anything specific from individual polls, only the general trend of the polls over a few months. However if the LibDems continue to struggle in the 12-15 box, as several polls over a few weeks have had them, then questions are going to have to be asked about Campbell’s leadership.

Leave a Comment » | LibDems, polls | Permalink
Posted by antonylittle

Believe the trend, not the poll

March 20, 2007

The now infamous poll which puts Cameron’s Conservatives up to 43%, with Brown’s Labour down on 28% and Sir Ming’s LibDems struggling on 18% has attracted much coverage on the news and the blogs.

This poll, if true and applied on a uniform swing, would deliver Mr Cameron every seat in the East of England with the exception of Colchester. That would include two sensational gains in both Norwich seats.

I have warned the party to keep the champagne on ice over these individual polls. A snapshot of opinion is, well, just that – a snapshot. You need to look for a clear trend of movement and a zone of polling before reading anything into it.

However, having said that Cameron is hitting all of the targets I have been setting myself for excitement.

I just wanted a lead to begin with – he gave me that.

I then wanted a sustained lead over Labour – he gave me that.

I then wanted to hit the 37-39% box – he gave me that.

I then wanted to hit 40% – he gave me that.

I then wanted a double digit lead – he gave me that.

I then wanted the same over Brown – he gave me that.

I then wanted to hit the 42-43% over Brown box – he’s now given me that.

I don’t want to get excited by polls but the movement and the trend are with Cameron (he has, as I’m sure somebody might say, the big mo’). Each time I set Cameron a higher bar for me to get excited he has jumped over it. I am now, therefore, allowing myself a sly smug grin – but nothing more.

Cameron looks increasingly like the election winning real-deal.

So let me set him the final hurdle. Let’s see him get to 45% against Brown sustained over a few months and I’ll get excited.

1 Comment | brown, cameron, polls | Permalink
Posted by antonylittle

ICM Poll: Cameron 42%, Brown 29%

February 19, 2007

Over at pb.com they are discussing the latest ICM poll which shows Cameron back at the 40% mark but, more interestingly, with a 13 point lead if the Chancellor took over. Most of this swing to the Tories comes at the expense of the LibDems, but it will give Labour MPs and activists in marginal seats a lot to think about before they opt for the cash-saving coronation of Mr Brown.

I have argued over the last week or so that Cameron is moving further ahead as the best PR and media operator of the party leaders. LibDem Leader Sir Ming Campbell has had a quiet couple of weeks whilst Dave leads a lot of the political news. This seems, on the face of it, to pay off for the young Mr Cameron. It doesn’t matter what he says, as long as he’s on TV or radio saying it!

However, it has also been pointed out to me that the swing if Brown were Labour Leader (which is, incidentally, enough to put Cameron in No.10 with a decent majority) also sees large numbers of LibDems opt for the Tories. Is this because the thought of Brown is so scary that a lot of LibDems will vote for the only way to stop him … i.e. Conservative?

I would be interested in what you have to say, but we have to agree that this is a decent poll for Cameron and a bad one for Brown (and, by default, for Campbell). But as we know, one poll does not an election win make.

Leave a Comment » | ICM, brown, cameron, polls | Permalink
Posted by antonylittle

« Previous Entries